The number of liver cancer cases worldwide is expected to rise sharply by 2050, with obesity and alcohol consumption playing an increasingly significant role, according to new research. Academics from the Lancet Commission on Liver Cancer estimate that global incidence will grow from 870,000 cases in 2022 to 1.52 million by mid-century. The proportion of liver cancer linked to obesity is projected to more than double, rising from 5% to 11%.
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While cases caused by hepatitis B and C viruses – traditionally the leading causes of liver cancer – are predicted to decline over time, lifestyle-related risk factors are becoming more prominent. Experts forecast that by 2050, 21% of liver cancer cases will be attributed to alcohol, and 11% to a severe form of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously known as fatty liver disease. The most serious type of MASLD, called metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, causes significant liver damage.
The researchers highlight that up to 60% of liver cancer cases are preventable through effective public health measures. Yet, global deaths from the disease are also expected to rise, from 760,000 in 2022 to 1.37 million in 2050. Preventive strategies such as promoting a healthy diet, increasing physical activity, and managing weight are crucial in reducing the burden of MASLD and, by extension, liver cancer.
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Professor Jian Zhou, chair of the Commission, emphasised the urgency of the situation: “We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action.” Professor Stephen Chan, the paper’s lead author, added that addressing the main preventable causes – viral hepatitis, alcohol misuse and obesity – offers a major opportunity to reduce cases and save lives.
