Bird populations across North America are experiencing steep declines, yet pinpointing the causes and designing effective conservation strategies has remained difficult due to a lack of precise, localised data. A new study published in Science offers a breakthrough, using machine learning and data from the popular birding platform eBird to provide far more granular insight. The team of researchers, led by Alison Johnston of the University of St Andrews, analysed 36 million records from 2007 to 2021, covering North, Central America and the Caribbean.
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Their results show that traditional bird strongholds are now among the hardest hit, with climate change and other environmental pressures contributing to the collapse. Most notably, 83 per cent of species are declining most rapidly in areas where they were once most abundant. Wood ducks, for instance, are falling in numbers in the southeastern United States but are doing better further north – a trend likely tied to shifting climate conditions. In total, 97 per cent of species showed both gains and losses in different regions, underscoring the complexity of conservation efforts.
The researchers addressed key weaknesses in citizen science data by limiting analysis to complete species checklists and incorporating variables like observation duration and distance. Advanced statistical models helped separate changes in bird behaviour from changes in birdwatching habits. These innovations allowed the team to identify population trends at a much finer scale – plots roughly 27 kilometres across – compared to previous studies which only offered state or regional-level insights.
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This new approach is already informing conservation work. Agencies are using the data to assess and manage the impact of human activity, such as wind energy development, on sensitive species like Bald Eagles. With birds playing critical roles in ecosystems – from seed dispersal to pest control – understanding and responding to their decline is more urgent than ever. By combining technology with citizen engagement, the study marks a significant advance in the global effort to preserve biodiversity.
