Just five days ago, Sir Keir Starmer sat down with UK journalists at the G7 summit in Canada and assured them that Donald Trump had no intention of attacking Iran. According to Starmer, the US president’s comments and the G7’s joint statement pointed toward de-escalation, with the prime minister insisting Trump sought not just a ceasefire, but a lasting resolution to the conflict. Starmer’s confidence appeared to stem from his close proximity to Trump at the G7 dinner, where he claimed to have witnessed a shared understanding.
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However, only hours after returning to the White House, Trump began posting threats to Iran via Truth Social. Five days later, he authorised airstrikes against Iran, having already set a two-week deadline for Tehran to return to the negotiating table. This sudden shift has prompted questions about the prime minister’s judgment. Why does Sir Keir so often misread Trump’s intentions—and why does the US president appear to consistently contradict him?
This is not the first instance of apparent miscalculation. During Starmer’s first official visit to the White House in March, he publicly praised Trump for “changing the conversation” on Ukraine—only for Trump and Vice President JD Vance to later berate President Zelensky. Similarly, a celebratory tone around a UK-US trade deal quickly unravelled when Trump imposed harsher steel tariffs than agreed, leaving the agreement only partially enacted. Despite good intentions and a seemingly warm relationship, Starmer’s optimism about Trump has repeatedly been undermined by subsequent developments.
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There is a possibility that Starmer’s approach is strategic—an effort to flatter Trump into cooperation. Yet, his repeated misjudgements, especially in times of escalating international tensions, leave the UK vulnerable to diplomatic surprises. The recent remarks by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, implying the G7 statement was a calculated deception, further complicate Starmer’s position. As global tensions rise, the prime minister’s ability to anticipate the actions of Britain’s closest ally will be put under increasing scrutiny.
