The United States’ decision to launch targeted attacks on three major Iranian nuclear facilities has sharply escalated tensions in the Middle East, sparking fears of a broader regional or even global conflict. Much now hinges on how Iran’s closest allies—Russia and China—choose to respond. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has confirmed plans for urgent discussions with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and Tehran has also opened diplomatic channels with Beijing. These developments reflect growing coordination among a bloc of authoritarian powers—including North Korea—whose interests are increasingly intertwined.
++ Europe urges Iran to reconsider enrichment and de-escalate regional tensions
Despite this alignment, there are no formal treaties obliging mutual military support among Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. However, the weakening of any member could adversely affect the strategic interests of the others, possibly encouraging indirect support such as arms supplies. Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, may find it difficult to offer meaningful military assistance to Iran, yet its diplomatic and rhetorical support remains potent. Analysts note that Trump’s historically warm relationship with Putin introduces an unpredictable element into Moscow’s next move.
Iran now faces immense pressure to retaliate against the United States. Its ballistic missile and drone capabilities have already been significantly degraded by successive Israeli strikes, complicating Tehran’s options. While American military assets in the region remain within reach, bolstered US air defences and the risk of overwhelming reprisal may deter direct attacks. Nonetheless, softer targets—including embassies, commercial shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and assets of US allies—could be considered. Though Britain had no involvement in the strikes, its Ministry of Defence has reportedly heightened protective measures across the Middle East.
++ UK offers charter flights from Israel amid escalating conflict
The US operation involved B-2 stealth bombers dropping bunker-busting GBU-57 bombs on the Fordow and Natanz enrichment sites, alongside submarine-launched cruise missiles aimed at Isfahan. The International Atomic Energy Agency has stated that the Isfahan buildings contained little or no nuclear material. President Trump claimed the strikes were necessary to hinder Iran’s capacity to develop a nuclear weapon, despite Iran’s longstanding assertion that its nuclear programme is strictly civilian. Russia’s foreign ministry condemned the strikes as a “dangerous escalation”, warning they could destabilise both regional and global security. As Tehran weighs its next steps, the international community braces for what may follow.
