A by-election has been triggered in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency after Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned following a conviction for assault, initially resulting in a ten-week prison sentence—later suspended for two years on appeal. In the 2024 General Election, Amesbury secured a commanding 52.9% of the vote, outpacing Reform UK’s candidate, who placed second with 18.1%, relegating the Conservatives to a distant third. Despite these figures, current polling suggests a tight race between Labour and Reform UK, with the far-right party potentially poised for a major upset.
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Should Labour retain the seat, it will offer little comfort to the party. This is a constituency deemed one of its safest, and any close result—let alone a loss—would underscore Labour’s recent collapse in public support. Although Labour won a landslide in last year’s Westminster election, it did so with only 33.7% of the vote, a consequence of the first-past-the-post electoral system rather than a deep well of public backing. Many voters, disillusioned by Labour’s lack of transformative change post-Conservative rule, have turned to Reform UK, who now position themselves as the voice of the working class.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s growing unpopularity is evident, with his notable absence from the Runcorn and Helsby campaign trail marking a departure from tradition; no party leader in the past two decades has avoided campaigning in their first by-election defence. Labour candidate Karen Shore has therefore had to distance herself from Starmer’s increasingly toxic brand. Meanwhile, in Scotland, Labour’s Anas Sarwar conspicuously avoided referencing Starmer in his recent STUC conference speech, reflecting broader unease within the party about its leadership.
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Beyond Labour’s woes, it is the Conservative Party that may suffer most from Reform UK’s ascent. With local elections and several mayoralties also being contested, there is a real prospect that more seats could fall to Nigel Farage’s surging movement. Such results will likely intensify pressure on the Conservatives to forge an alliance with Reform or shift even further to the right. Should Farage’s party gain ground, it would mark another significant step towards reshaping the political landscape across England.
