Labour’s commanding position following its landslide victory in the summer of 2024 has rapidly eroded. The party has now dropped to just 21 per cent in the latest YouGov poll – its lowest level since the pollster began tracking voting intention in 2019. Reform UK has capitalised on the growing dissatisfaction, overtaking both Labour and the Conservatives in the polls – the first time a party has done so in over a century. According to The Telegraph’s Election Predictor, Reform is projected to become the largest party at the next general election, potentially winning over 300 seats, although still falling short of an outright majority.
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The dramatic rise of Reform comes after years of frustration with the first-past-the-post voting system, which many felt disadvantaged insurgent parties. Nigel Farage, long critical of the Westminster model, now appears poised to lead the largest political force in the country. The model underpinning these projections is based on extensive polling, demographic data, and voting history, offering a granular forecast of each constituency. While Labour is set to see its parliamentary numbers halved, the Conservatives face an even more dramatic collapse, potentially falling below 50 seats and becoming the third party in Parliament.
Should no party win an outright majority, the prospect of a coalition between the Conservatives and Reform has been raised, with the latter likely to dominate such an arrangement. However, the political landscape remains fluid, and much could shift before the legally mandated general election deadline of August 2029. Voter allegiances are in flux, and the durability of Reform’s surge is yet to be tested. Meanwhile, Labour faces the monumental task of regaining support across age groups and regions, while the SNP and Plaid Cymru continue to make gains at a regional level.
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The public perception of party leaders has shifted significantly as well. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, once viewed as a balanced and pragmatic figure, now polls less favourably than the polarising Nigel Farage. Kemi Badenoch, who took over as Leader of the Opposition in November, has similarly struggled to win over the public. While polling carries inherent uncertainty, a broad-based view across multiple survey organisations offers a clearer sense of trends. The Telegraph’s model, built using machine learning techniques and extensive data from 2001 onwards, attempts to navigate this complexity and present a realistic projection of the UK’s political future.
