A potential crisis within NATO has been temporarily defused, albeit at considerable cost. While Donald Trump may claim credit for the alliance’s renewed commitment to defence spending, the shift in strategic posture has been driven in large part by Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. That conflict jolted the alliance into action, and leaders now face the uncomfortable prospect that, even if a ceasefire is agreed, Russia will eventually recover its military strength. A European-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine is likely to follow, adding pressure to bolster defences across the continent.
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The recent summit in The Hague benefited from Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s tactful but sycophantic diplomacy towards Trump. Despite awkward moments – including Rutte describing Trump as a “father figure” telling Iran and Israel to stop fighting – the approach contributed to a constructive outcome. Trump’s overnight stay in the Dutch royal palace, followed by a breakfast and a series of short speeches by the other 31 leaders, appears to have softened his stance. “I came here because it was something I’m supposed to be doing, but I left here a little bit different,” he remarked.
Nonetheless, NATO’s renewed cohesion is underpinned by real anxieties. Trump’s earlier conversations with Putin and tensions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had triggered alarm across Europe. His defence secretary’s warning that Europe may one day have to defend itself without American support further fuelled concern. NATO planners fear that even under a ceasefire, Russia could rebuild quickly – within as little as three to seven years – creating renewed threats to NATO’s eastern flank. The Kremlin’s capacity to maintain a 600,000-strong army and spend 6.5% of GDP on defence is a key driver of allied urgency.
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The scale of NATO’s planned remilitarisation is unprecedented in the post-Cold War era. The Royal United Services Institute estimates that defence spending among European allies and Canada will rise from £365 billion today to over £800 billion by 2035, effectively matching the Pentagon’s budget. Britain alone is committing at least £1 billion to re-establish air-launched tactical nuclear capabilities to complement Trident – a move intended to deter a major Russian land invasion, however unlikely it may seem. The Hague summit may come to symbolise the moment the peace dividend of the 1990s truly ended.
