Internal tensions within the Labour Party continue to escalate following a series of damaging political developments, with one senior figure suggesting that Keir Starmer may not remain in Downing Street beyond Christmas. The Prime Minister’s closest aide, Morgan McSweeney, appeared before Labour peers this week in an effort to calm nerves, but one insider described the meeting as a “car crash in slow motion”. McSweeney, who now serves as No 10’s chief of staff, faced more than 80 peers as he attempted to explain the government’s plans to recover from mounting political and economic difficulties.
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Concerns intensified after the Caerphilly by-election exposed Labour’s waning influence in Wales. Plaid Cymru won comfortably, securing almost half of the vote and ending more than a century of Labour dominance in the area. Labour’s candidate finished a distant third behind Reform UK — a result insiders have called “an absolute disaster”. Many MPs and peers now concede privately that Starmer’s leadership has struggled to motivate either the wider public or his own party.
Attention is turning to what happens next — and whether the Prime Minister can survive the current crisis. One Labour insider told HuffPost UK that Starmer’s position could come under serious threat after the Budget in late November: “The chances of him being gone by Christmas are massively under-priced. If a new leader comes in and boosts the polls by five points, suddenly the situation looks a lot better — fewer losses in Wales, improved results in Scotland and more councillors saved.”
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Starmer, speaking on Friday, insisted that both the UK and Welsh administrations must “reflect and regroup” in the wake of the by-election. Asked whether he would resign should he fail to improve Labour’s standing ahead of the Senedd elections in May, he said he was “deeply disappointed” by the result but committed to “doubling down on delivery in Wales” while acknowledging that “much more” needs to be done.
