Iraq, like many nations in the Middle East, watches with unease as tensions escalate following the United States’ recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. However, Iraq’s position is particularly precarious due to its geopolitical location and complex ties to both Tehran and Washington. The Shia-led government in Baghdad maintains close relations with Iran, with powerful Shia militia groups often taking direction from Tehran, despite nominally falling under the control of Iraqi authorities.
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At the same time, Iraq remains reliant on the United States for security and stability, particularly in its ongoing efforts to contain extremist threats such as Islamic State. With around 2,500 American personnel still stationed in Iraq, and key bases such as Erbil within striking distance of Iranian missiles, the risk of escalation is severe. Iran has made clear that it could target US interests across the region, while Iraqi militias have warned they may retaliate against American forces if the US continues supporting Israel’s military campaign.
The situation is further complicated by reports that Israeli forces used Iraqi airspace to launch attacks on Iran—something that has angered Baghdad, although the government appears powerless to stop it. Moreover, the Iraqi government struggles to rein in the Shia militias, who may act independently, potentially undermining national stability or provoking attacks on Iraqi soil. While the US has publicly warned Iran and its regional proxies against further aggression, President Trump has signalled his willingness to act forcefully in response.
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As the rhetoric intensifies, Iraq finds itself walking a tightrope. It cannot afford to alienate either of the two global powers whose influence shapes its security landscape. What Iraq most urgently requires is a return to diplomacy—both to preserve its sovereignty and to avoid being pulled deeper into a conflict that could devastate the region.
