Germany’s foreign intelligence service estimated in 2020 that there was an 80% to 90% likelihood that the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic was accidentally released from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology, according to reports published on Wednesday by German newspapers Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung.
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The publications stated that Germany’s intelligence agency, the BND, had indications that the institute had conducted gain-of-function research, a process in which viruses are modified to become more transmissible to humans for scientific purposes. The agency also reportedly found evidence of multiple safety violations at the laboratory.
The BND’s assessment was based on an intelligence operation codenamed “Saaremaa” as well as publicly available information. Commissioned by the office of then-Chancellor Angela Merkel, the report was never officially published. However, it was shared with the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the autumn of 2024. The CIA later stated in January that it considered a laboratory origin more likely than natural transmission, though it maintained “low confidence” in this assessment.
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China has consistently denied the credibility of claims that a laboratory leak was responsible for the outbreak. The Chinese government insists that it has supported and participated in efforts to determine the origins of COVID-19, while accusing Washington of politicising the issue, particularly through intelligence-led investigations.
