A political crisis has erupted in the Netherlands after Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), abruptly withdrew from the governing coalition. The move has destabilised Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s right-wing alliance, which now holds only 51 of the 150 seats in the Lower House of parliament. This significant loss of support makes the current government untenable and is expected to prompt Schoof’s resignation.
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In the likely event of the Prime Minister stepping down, the next step would be to call for new elections. Based on historical timelines, a general election is unlikely to occur before mid-October. Wilders’ PVV secured a dominant lead in the November 2023 elections with 23% of the vote, but recent polls suggest his popularity has waned, with the party now polling around 20%, equalling the Labour/Green alliance. The Dutch political landscape has proven volatile, with swift shifts in public support making outcomes difficult to predict.
An alternative to elections would be for Schoof to continue with the remaining coalition parties in a minority government. However, this is viewed as highly improbable, given the lack of support from opposition parties and the coalition’s existing minority in the Senate. The Senate’s power to block legislation passed by the Lower House further complicates this route, rendering governance through such a minority unviable.
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Another remote possibility would involve new parties joining the fragmented coalition to form a revised majority government. Yet, no parties have expressed any willingness to replace PVV ministers or support the existing framework. With few viable alternatives and mounting pressure from all sides, the Netherlands is bracing for a return to the polls amidst continuing political uncertainty.
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