The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its sixth day, with casualties mounting and the risk of further escalation growing. Reports suggest the United States may consider joining Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, a move underpinned by diverging assessments from the countries’ respective intelligence services. While the Israeli government insists Iran is on the brink of acquiring a nuclear weapon, US intelligence agencies maintain that such a development is still years away.
++ Can fish see in colour? What science says
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long warned of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and recently launched “Operation Rising Lion” to target what he claims is a covert Iranian programme to weaponise uranium. Israeli officials, including President Isaac Herzog, argue that Tehran is advancing its nuclear capacity “under disguise” and has misled Western negotiators during talks aimed at reviving the nuclear deal. Israel has framed the military operation as essential to its survival, citing intelligence it claims to have shared with Washington.
In contrast, US intelligence assessments paint a more cautious picture. According to sources cited by CNN, Iran may be close to having the necessary components but is not currently pursuing an active nuclear weapons programme. American officials also question the long-term effectiveness of Israeli airstrikes, noting that key facilities such as Fordow remain largely unscathed and suggesting that Israel’s efforts may only delay Iran’s nuclear capabilities by a matter of months. Experts have argued that only a direct US military intervention or a diplomatic agreement could significantly halt Iran’s progress.
++ Keir Starmer’s series of U-Turns raise questions about labour’s political direction
Meanwhile, President Trump’s recent remarks have fuelled speculation about potential American involvement. Despite a preference for negotiation, he has downplayed the views of his own intelligence chief, asserting that Iran was “very close” to possessing a bomb. These comments raise concerns that Trump may rely on personal judgement over expert analysis when determining the US response. As the situation unfolds, the divergence in Israeli and American intelligence continues to play a central role in shaping global strategy towards Iran.
