An RAF official has warned that new radar and missile technology has effectively “flattened the earth,” putting even extremely low-flying aircraft at increased risk of detection. Air Vice-Marshal James Beck, the RAF’s Director of Capabilities and Programmes, explained that the long-held belief that flying low and fast beneath the radar horizon could enable deep penetration into hostile airspace is becoming “obsolete”. Improvements in surveillance and air defence systems have significantly eroded the advantage once gained from terrain-masking.
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Beck highlighted a combination of emerging threats, including advancements in Active Electronically Scanned Array radar, Over-the-Horizon systems capable of seeing beyond the earth’s curvature, and the extensive reach of airborne surveillance platforms. Alongside the increased detection ranges of radars, the growing capability and range of modern missile systems are transforming the battlespace. Restricted zones defended by anti-access, area-denial networks are already vast, and Beck cautioned that within a decade they could be “measured in continents”.
The war in Ukraine continues to demonstrate the consequences of failing to secure control of the air, with both Russia and Ukraine struggling to operate freely due to powerful air defence networks. Aircraft are limited to minimal exposure tactics, while drones and missiles are used to strike deep behind enemy lines. Beck stressed that maintaining a technological edge is now crucial, especially as state and non-state actors rapidly enhance their own air and missile defence systems.
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To address these challenges, the UK aims to strengthen command and control capabilities while investing in improved sensors across land, air and space to extend detection and interception opportunities. Looking ahead, the RAF views fifth-generation aircraft such as the F-35 Lightning II as the baseline for modern conflict, with sixth-generation fighter programmes, including the Global Combat Air Programme, expected to deliver advanced stealth and deep-strike capabilities. Beck emphasised that retaining control of the air will remain the UK’s highest priority in future warfare.
