Reform UK is forecast to win a landslide general election victory that would leave Labour with fewer than 100 seats, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by communications firm PLMR alongside Electoral Calculus, suggests Nigel Farage’s party could secure 445 Westminster seats — the largest majority in modern British political history. The MRP poll, first reported by the Daily Mail, indicates that if an election were held today, Labour would be reduced to just 73 MPs, while the Conservatives would fall to a historic low of seven. High-profile figures including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband are all predicted to lose their seats.
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In Scotland, the SNP is projected to retain 41 seats, though Reform UK’s momentum appears set to extend north of the Border. The poll suggests the party would gain constituencies such as East Lothian, Bathgate and Linlithgow, Hamilton and Clyde Valley, Ayrshire Central and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock. These results would see several prominent figures, including Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander and Morgan McSweeney’s wife Imogen Walker, defeated. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s breakaway movement, Your Party, is predicted to unseat both the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and Health Secretary, Wes Streeting. Senior Conservatives such as Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are also projected to lose their seats to Reform UK candidates.
Kevin Craig, chief executive of PLMR, described the poll as revealing a “remarkable fall from grace” for the Conservative Party. He said the findings demonstrate that voters’ top priorities are the economy, the cost of living, immigration and the NHS. “Traditional party loyalties are under unprecedented pressure,” he said. “Voters want the weekly shop to cost less, and they expect action rather than slogans. The Government must focus on putting more money into working people’s pockets to regain public trust ahead of the next election.” The poll found that 59 per cent of voters identified the economy and cost of living as their most pressing concerns, followed by immigration (47 per cent) and the NHS (44 per cent).
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Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said the data highlights “just how volatile the political landscape has become”. He noted that anti-Reform tactical voting could prevent the party from converting its polling advantage into as many seats as projected, but the emergence of Your Party is fragmenting the left-of-centre vote. “This dynamic benefits Reform UK while making Labour’s challenge harder,” he said. “With the Autumn Budget approaching, voters are clearly signalling that their priorities are economic stability, immigration control and protecting the NHS. Labour now faces a decisive test — whether it can respond to these concerns or risk losing its foothold as Reform consolidates its support.”
