A defunct Soviet spacecraft, originally intended to land on Venus in the 1970s, is expected to make an uncontrolled descent back to Earth in the coming days. The Kosmos 482 probe, launched in 1972, failed to escape Earth’s orbit due to a rocket malfunction and has remained in space for over five decades. Experts now believe the landing capsule — a robust, one-metre-wide sphere weighing nearly 500 kilograms — will reenter the atmosphere around 10 May, although its exact trajectory remains uncertain.
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According to Dutch space-debris expert Marco Langbroek, the object could crash to Earth at approximately 242 kilometres per hour, depending on how much of the structure survives reentry. He stressed, however, that while there is a risk, it remains very low: “The likelihood is similar to that of a random meteorite strike — which occurs several times a year. You’re more likely to be struck by lightning.” Nonetheless, he conceded that the possibility of damage or injury cannot be ruled out entirely.
The capsule was engineered to withstand Venus’s harsh carbon dioxide-dense atmosphere, which raises the probability of its survival during Earth reentry. However, after 53 years in orbit, its parachute system is unlikely to function, and the heat shield may have deteriorated. Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics suggests that, ironically, failure of the heat shield would be preferable, as it would lead to the object disintegrating in the atmosphere.
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The spacecraft’s reentry zone could be anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude — a broad band that spans cities like London, Edmonton and Cape Horn. Given the Earth’s geography, Langbroek believes it is more likely the object will fall into one of the planet’s oceans. Regardless, space authorities will be closely monitoring the situation to assess any potential threat.
